Will a terrorist kill you?

Putting Fear in Perspective

What's the risk of death from terrorism, spiders, snakes and sharks? Do you need to worry?

We fear these things but are they really a serious problem? Here's the answer pulling data from official sources.
UK Health and Safety Executive (HSE); Royal Society for the Prevention of Accidents (RoSPA); National Crime Agency (NCA); Office for National Statistics (ONS); Home Office (HO); National Water Safety Forum (NWSF); Dept. for Transport (DfT); Office for Health Improvement and Disparities (OHID)
US National Safety Council (NSC); Center for Disease Control (CDC)
World World Health Organisation (WHO)

Your risk of death - the real risks
#	Top 30 Causes of death	World	US	UK
1	Heart disease § Note 1	1:900	1:493	1:995
2	Cancer	1:810	1:548	1:405
3	Stroke & other vascular disease	1:1,110	1:2,009	1:1,773
4	Respiratory disease § Note 2	1:2,189	1:2,223	1:2,251
5	Accidents - All types	1:2,160	1:1,509	1:4,430
6	Diabetes	1:4,050	1:3,388	1:5,670
7	Alzheimer's disease	1:3,240	1:2,814	1:990
8	Accidents - Non transport § Note 3	1:3,164	1:1,895	1:4,974
9	Covid, Flu and pneumonia§ Note 4	1:1,883	1:1,147	1:1,055
10	All Accidents - Transport	1:6,800	1:1,895	1:1:40,414
11	Kidney disease	1:8,100	1:5,815	1:7,185
12	Septicemia § Note 5		1:8,320	1:1,375
13	Suicide	1:11,100	1:6,760	1:11,590
14	Liver disease	1:6,230	1:6,680	1:6,070
15	High blood pressure	1:6,750	1:8,755	1:8,870
16	Accidents - Poisoning or exposure to harmful substances	1:10,125	1:3,160	1:14,750
17	Accidents - Falls	1:11,095	1:7,480	1:1:5,200
18	Parkinson’s disease	1:21,315	1:7,910	1:15,350
19	Homicide	1:18,000	1:14,240	1:99,500
20	HIV/AIDS	1:12,850	1:58,950	1:307,700
21	Birth defects	1:10,800	1:46,600	1:110,900
22	Infectious and parasitic diseases	§ Note 10	1:33,100	1:10,900
23	Anemia	1:40,500	1:58,950	1:66,370
24	Asthma	1:16,875	1:95,700	1:60,450
25	Accidents - Drowning	1:35,200	1:84,000	1:287,000
26	Ulcers	1:27,930	1:116,200	1:95,350
27	Nutritional deficiencies	1:17,230	1:15,000	1:52,000
28	Complications of medical and surgical care § Note 11		1:14,000
29	Hernia	1:176,000	1:152,000	1:130,000
30	Hodgkin's disease	1:300,000	1:336,000	1:307,700

Notes on the Data

1. Heart Disease (World): I've used the ~9 million deaths from Ischaemic Heart Disease (WHO).

2. Respiratory Disease: This uses data for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), as "Flu and pneumonia" is its own category. The similarity in odds across all three regions is fascinating.

3. Accidents - Non transport: This useful (but hard to find) number is calculated by taking "All Accidents" and subtracting "Transport Accidents."

4. Covid, Flu and pneumonia: This category is now dominated by COVID-19. I've combined the latest full-year data for COVID-19 and "Influenza and Pneumonia" to get this total. This is a prime example of how the 2005 list has been completely disrupted.

5. Septicemia: This is a complex category. The WHO doesn't list sepsis as a primary cause, as it's a complication of other infections. The US (40,390 deaths) and UK (49,228 deaths) data reflect its significant impact as a recorded cause. The UK's high number (1:1,375) shows it's a major, and often under-discussed, cause of death.

6. Accidents - Poisoning: This row highlights a stark difference. In the US, this is almost entirely driven by the drug overdose epidemic (106,300+ deaths). The global figure (800,000+ deaths) is also high. The UK risk (4,588 deaths), while serious, is significantly lower than in the US, making this a key point in regional comparison.

7. Accidents - Falls: It's fascinating to note that in the UK and US, you are more likely to die from a fall than from transport accidents, homicide, and many other "amplified" risks combined.

8. Homicide: The risk of homicide in the UK (1:99,500) is exceptionally low compared to the US (1:14,240) and the global average.

9. HIV/AIDS: While still a massive global tragedy (630,000 deaths), the data shows the incredible success of modern medicine in the US and UK, where it is now a very rare cause of death compared to the 1990s.

10. Infectious & parasitic diseases: This is a vast category. The global figure is skewed high by diseases like Malaria and Tuberculosis (WHO). The UK's higher rate (1:10,900) compared to the US (1:33,100) is not due to tropical diseases but is likely driven by how conditions like sepsis and other infections are classified.

11. Complications (Medical): This is the most difficult to compare. There is no single international code for "death by medical complication" as it's often listed by the original illness. The US figure (approx. 24,000 deaths) is from CDC data for "Complications of medical and surgical care." The UK does not publish a comparable single statistic; instead, these are tracked by other bodies (like the CQC) but not centrally collated by the ONS as a cause of death in the same way.

Unlikely causes of death - How likely are you to die because of...

The table shows risk of death in your lifetime unless otherwise stated.

Rank	Cause of death	Historic Odds 1 in:	World Odds 1 in:	US Odds 1 in:	UK Odds 1 in:
1	Death in pregnancy per birth	1,895	190	3,000	8,400
2	Death at work. Agricultural workers	3,425	n/a	107*	1,020*
3	Death at work. Mining	3,534	n/a	137*	500*
4	Death at Home. All people all risks***	7,875	n/a	1,219	137
5	Suicide by firearm USA	16,831	n/a	320	n/a
6	Accident - Car occupant	17,625	93	180	1,100
7	Infants - Mechanical suffocation	18,970	n/a	3,978†	15,625†
8	Infants - Motor vehicle (traffic)	22,075	n/a	22,370†	335,000†
9	Death through falls	23,162	160	98	163
10	Assault by firearm USA	24,342	n/a	289	n/a	n/a
11	Death at work. All workers	28,571	193*	1,811*	5,433*
12	Death at Home - Poisoning	30,288	925	2,832	1,388
13	Death at work. Professional & Business services	34,483	n/a	877*	14,285*
14	Overdose of narcotics and hallucinogens	34,843	591	76	166
15	Infants - Fire and Flames	35,211	n/a	85,116†	312,500†
16	Various medicaments and biologics	41,828	738	3,584	269
17	suicide by hanging or self-strangulation	44,559	234	301	239
18	Infants - Drowning	46,948	n/a	38,526†	312,500†
19	Pedestrian	47,273	278	364	1,988
20	Suicide by poisoning	52,487	466*	310*	960*
21	Infants -Inhalation of non-food object	57,142	n/a	24,000†	200,000†
22	Accident - Occupant of pick-up truck or van	67,182	n/a	250*	4,500*
23	Death from Choking	70,000	2,745	2,461	2,980
24	Drowning - All causes	83,534	464	1,073	2,790
25	Accidental poisoning	86,313	130	57	166
26	Death at home - Fires	87,500	n/a	1,376	4,650
27	Accident - Motor Cycle Rider	89,562	770	706	2,575
28	Fire - all causes	91,149	1,177	1,266	3,350
29	Complications by medical and surgical care	101,281	738**	3,584**	269**
30	Uncontrolled fire in building	113,676	n/a	1,376**	4,650**
31	Assault by sharp object	138,834	n/a	22,700	27,200
32	Death at work. Financial activities	142,858	n/a	3,125*	n/a*
33	Falling from stairs or steps	180,188	n/a	2,800	1,400
34	In natural water	217,314	19,000**	2,750**	5,600**
35	Riding horse or animal drawn vehicle	244,180	n/a	13,750	1,850,000
36	Anti-epileptic sedative-hypnotic etc	281,193	n/a	225	1,150
37	Hit by some object unintentionally	333,265	n/a	5,200	45,500
38	Food- in respiratory tract (Choking)	351,577	3,300	1,040	3,000
39	Falling from bed, chair or furniture	366,804	n/a	7,100	5,100
40	Pedal Cyclist	375,412	1,500	3,900	10,000
41	Inhaling gases and vapors	416,702	n/a	2,650	24,000
42	From air and space accidents	440,951	5,051	103,500	1,300,000
43	Contact with machinery	441,628	n/a	7,900*	110,000*
44	Tripping/slipping at same level	445,729	n/a	1,200	1,150
45	Excessive natural cold	445,729	1,600	4,200	165
46	In swimming pool	452,738	n/a	11,000**	227,000**
47	While on water transportation	466,679	n/a	7,500	700,000
48	Falling out of building	516,950	n/a	17,200	130,000
49	Suffocation in bed	565,700	n/a	10,500	120,000
50	Traveling in heavy transport vehicle	631,450	n/a	3,900	14,500
51	Falling from ladder or scaffolding	709,215	n/a	3,600	30,000
52	Child abduction murder	730,008	n/a	n/a*	n/a*
53	Alcohol	811,102	n/a	1,875**	2,093**
54	In bath tub	818,015	n/a	10,312	33,500
55	Excessive natural heat	822,689	n/a	65,721	2,800***
56	Electrocution (non transmission lines)	894,227	n/a	15,431****	837,500****
57	Strangulation	969,499	n/a	2,750*****	27,916*****
58	Drowning or submersion	1,111,742	n/a	1,006	2,791
59	Accidental firearm discharge	1,184,943	n/a	8,745	n/a******
60	Pain relievers anti-rheumatics etc	1,297,033	n/a	57*******	174*******
61	Occupant of agricultural vehicle	1,932,491	n/a	41,250	1,046,875
62	Explosion of other materials	2,101,781	n/a	258,261	n/a
63	Accidental hanging or strangulation	2,164,927	n/a	5,595	5,583
64	Overexertion travel and privation	2,249,541	n/a	70,172	n/a
65	Caught between 2 objects	2,503,837	n/a	48,111	n/a
66	Electric transmission lines	2,641,663	n/a	15,431****	837,500****
67	Contact with sharp objects	2,742,297	n/a	28,111	418,750
68	Falling from high place	2,795,546	n/a	47,211	n/a********
69	Bitten by mammals other than dogs	3,839,216	n/a	1,235,970	n/a*********
70	Legal execution!	4,297,630	n/a	n/a*********	zero
71	From lightning strikes	4,326,748	n/a	15,300	279,000
72	From cataclysmic storm	4,570,498	n/a	54,642	n/a***********
73	Cave-in or falling earth	5,051,600	n/a	143,770*	n/a*
74	Stung by hornets, wasps and bees	5,332,245	n/a	54,093	81,707
75	Occupant of a bus	6,696,307	n/a	613,741	272,357
76	Contact with hot tap water	7,198,531	n/a	31,313	68,089
77	Controlled fire in building	8,226,892	n/a	3,747**	2,723**
78	From earthquakes	9,288,426	n/a	143,770	n/a***
79	Terrorist attack	9,300,000	n/a	45,808****	n/a****
80	While on railway train	10,283,615	n/a	1,733,355	408,536
81	Explosion of pressurized vessels	10,664,490	n/a	452,174	n/a
82	Struck by a person	11,074,662	n/a	6,200	7,100
83	Bitten by a dog	15,966,734	n/a	69,016	163,414
84	Bitten or stung by insect	22,149,325	n/a	n/a******	n/a******
85	Ignition of nightwear	22,149,325	n/a	1,321,294	n/a
86	Excessive man-made heat or cold	28,784,122	n/a	522,419*******	n/a
87	Contact with venomous spiders	28,794,122	n/a	479,058	zero
88	From Floods	31,993,469	n/a	123,597	408,536
89	Unintentional firearms discharge	57,588,244	n/a	8,745********	n/a********
90	Explosion of fireworks	57,588,244	n/a	4,024,390	817,073
91	Killed while occupant of street car	71,985,305	n/a	23,283,214	n/a*********
92	Contact with venomous snakes	95,980,407	1,096*	846,153**	zero***
93	Killed by a vending machine	112,000,000	n/a	2,115,384	zero****
94	Shark attack	264,100,000	21,917,808	4,332,817	zero*****
95	Rabies - in USA	880,000,000	1,858†	1,510,994††	zero†††
96	killed by a meteor (estimate since only one person has ever been hit by one in 1954 and was only bruised)	765,000,000,000,000,000

?? Important Notes on the Data

General Note & Row 21: These figures are based on the most recent data from national (NSC, ONS, CDC) and international (WHO, ILO) bodies. They may differ significantly from the "Historic Odds" column. For example: figures for Row 21 (Suicide by poisoning), marked with an asterisk (*), are estimates calculated from total suicide odds and the percentage of suicides attributable to poisoning.
Row 2,3 & 4: This data (from the US National Safety Council) is for a 45-year career in that industry, not a full lifetime. The UK figure is a similar estimate based on annual fatality rates. This is significantly different to the historical record since it is based on a relatively small workforce rather than word population.
Row 4: This refers to accidental/preventable injury at home, not dying at home from any cause (like old age or illness).
Row 6: The huge difference here is largely due to road design and seatbelt enforcement. The UK uses roundabouts extensively, which reduce fatal T-bone collisions at intersections. The US relies more on 4-way traffic lights/stops, where high-speed angle crashes are common. Cars in the UK will also travel much shorter distances.
Row 7 & 8: The odds shown are per birth, not per lifetime.
Row 9: Today people live longer and poor balance becomes a problem. Records are improving so a death after a prolonged hospital stay will list the fall as a contributery factor. People in the US tend to be heavier and more likely to be taking drugs which affect balance. This accounts for the higher risk.
Row 10 (Assault by firearm): This is a US-specific statistic. The lifetime odds for the UK are exceptionally high (e.g., 1 in 1,000,000+) due to very low firearm homicide rates, so it is marked n/a.
Row 11 & 13 (Death at work): Odds marked with an asterisk (*) are based on a 45-year working career, not a full lifetime.
Row 12 & 14 (Poisoning vs. Overdose): The data for Row 15 ("Overdose") reflects death from drug poisoning. The data for Row 13 ("Death at Home - Poisoning") is calculated to reflect non-drug poisoning (e.g., from gases, pesticides, or cleaning chemicals) to avoid duplication.
Row 15 & 18 (Infants): Odds marked with a dagger (†) are per birth or per infant (age < 1 year), not lifetime odds. Row 15: There's a significant difference between the US and UK. In the UK, a fire is often a "room fire" contained by brick walls and slowed by fire-resistant foam. In the US, a fire is more likely to become a "structure fire," consuming the wooden frame of the house itself much more rapidly. For an infant unable to evacuate, that speed is the difference between life and death. Row 18: Residential pools are more common in the US and large 5 gallon buckets in the US pose a danger to US infants also.
Row 17 (Medicaments): This data reflects deaths from "Complications of medical/surgical care" or adverse reactions, not illicit drug overdoses (which are covered in Row 15).
Row 19 (Pedestrians): You are more than five times as likely to be killed as a pedestrian in the US compared to the UK. The difference being mostly due to faster road speeds in the US especially in built up areas.
Row 20 (Suicide by poisoning): Figures marked with an asterisk (*) are estimates calculated from total suicide odds and the percentage of suicides attributable to poisoning (which differs by country).
Row 21 (Infant Inhalation): Odds marked with a dagger (†) are per birth, not lifetime odds. This is calculated from annual infant deaths from this cause versus total annual births.
Row 22 (Pick-up truck/van): Figures marked with an asterisk (*) are estimates, as most safety bodies group "pick-up trucks" and "vans" with "light trucks" or "all motor vehicles."
Row 26 (Accidental poisoning): This category (driven almost entirely by drug overdoses) has become a leading cause of unintentional death in the US, hence the very high odds of 1 in 57. This data (from 2023) is more recent than the data for Row 15 ("Overdose").
Row 28, 30 (Fire): These categories overlap.
- Row 28 is the broadest category ("all fire and smoke deaths").
- Row 28 & 30 ("Death at home - Fires" and "Uncontrolled fire in building") are more specific. The data shown (marked with **) is for structure/dwelling fires, which account for the vast majority of all fire deaths.
Row 29 (Complications): Figures marked with a double asterisk (**) are for "Complications of medical/surgical care." This is the same data set used for Row 17 ("Various medicaments and biologics"), as these are considered the same category in modern statistical reporting.
Row 32 (Financial activities): This data is for a 45-year working career, not a full lifetime, and is marked with an asterisk (*). The UK fatality rate for this sector is so low (often zero in a given year) that it is not published separately by the HSE.
Row 34 & 46 (Drowning): These figures (marked **) are a subset of Row 25 ("Drowning - All causes"). The data shows that in the US, most drownings occur in natural water, whereas, in the UK, they are far more likely to occur in natural water than in pools.
Row 35 (Riding horse): This data is difficult to find. The UK figure is based on a very low number of annual deaths (3-5) specifically related to riding on roads. The US figure is an estimate based on a higher number of total recreational equestrian deaths.
Row 36 (Anti-epileptic, etc.): This category consists almost entirely of accidental poisonings (overdoses) involving these specific classes of prescription drugs.
Row 39 & 44 (Falls): These are specific types of falls, which are a leading cause of death, especially for older adults. "Tripping/slipping at same level" (Row 44) is a much more common cause of fatal injury than "Falling from bed, chair or furniture" (Row 39).
Row 41 (Inhaling gases): This primarily refers to accidental poisoning from utility gas (natural gas) or carbon monoxide.
Row 42 (Air/space accidents): The "World" odd (1 in 5,051) is from the US National Safety Council and refers to your lifetime risk of being in *any* air transport accident. The US/UK odds (1 in 103,500 / 1 in 1.3M) are for *commercial flight* only, which is significantly safer.
Row 43, 50, 51 (Work-related risks): "Contact with machinery," "Traveling in heavy transport," and "Falling from ladder" are overwhelmingly risks associated with specific occupations (e.g., construction, agriculture, transport). The odds shown are based on total population, but the risk for individuals outside these jobs is dramatically lower.
Row 45 (Excessive natural cold): The UK has a very high rate of "excess winter deaths," many of which are linked to cold and fuel poverty, resulting in much higher odds of death from cold compared to the US.
Row 48 (Suffocation in bed): This refers to adult mechanical suffocation (e.g., positional asphyxia) and is distinct from infant suffocation (SIDS).

* (Row 53): This specific event is extremely rare. Statistics are typically grouped under "homicide" and are not isolated in this way, making a reliable 'odds' calculation impossible.

** (Row 54): This figure is for "accidental alcohol poisoning" (overdose), not chronic alcohol-related diseases (like liver failure).

*** (Row 56): The UK risk is rising sharply. This figure is a calculation based on the ~3,000 excess deaths recorded during the 2022 heatwave, highlighting a significant vulnerability.

**** (Rows 57 & 67): The US NSC combines all "Exposure to electric current" into one category (1 in 15,431). The UK figure is for all electrocutions, which are very rare (~1 death per year not at work).

***** (Row 58): This figure is calculated from homicide statistics for "strangulation and suffocation."

****** (Row 60): Accidental firearm deaths are exceptionally rare in the UK (fewer than 1-2 per year) and are not a standard statistical category, making the odds astronomical.

******* (Row 61): This is a broad category. The US figure (1 in 57) is from the NSC for "Accidental Opioid Overdose." The UK figure (1 in 174) is for all "drug poisoning" deaths.

******** (Row 69): This category is statistically ambiguous and overlaps heavily with Row 34 ("Falling from stairs"), making a distinct UK figure difficult to source.

********* (Row 70): The US NSC figure is for "Bitten or struck by other animals." In the UK, the only comparable stat is for dog attacks (which are excluded here) or rare events like a cow trampling, so a figure is not reliably available.

********** (Row 71): This is not an accidental risk, as it only applies to individuals convicted of a capital crime in specific states. The risk for the general US population is effectively 0.

*********** (Row 73): Major storm deaths are very rare in the UK. The "Great Storm" of 1987, the most significant in 300 years, resulted in 18 deaths. It is not a recurring statistical cause.

* (Row 74): The US figure is from the NSC for "Earthquake and other earth movements." Specific deaths from "cave-in" are usually occupational (e.g., mining) and not a general population risk. UK risk is negligible.

** (Row 78): This is a confusing category. The 'Historic Odds' (1 in 8.2m) suggest a rare event. However, the US NSC figure is for "Smoldering fire (controlled fire in building or structure)." The UK figure is for all deaths from "Fire and smoke," which are more common (1 in 2,723).

*** (Row 79): The risk of death from an earthquake in the UK is effectively zero.

**** (Row 80): This risk is highly variable and political. The US figure is a widely-cited lifetime calculation. A comparable, stable 'odds' figure for the UK is not readily available.

****** (Row 85): This category is too vague and overlaps with Row 75 ("Hornets, wasps and bees") and Row 88 ("Venomous spiders"). It's unclear what "insect" this refers to (e.g., non-venomous, or other venomous types like ants), so reliable data isn't available.

******* (Row 87): The US NSC has a specific category for "Exposure to man-made heat," which is separate from "natural heat."

******** (Row 90): This is a duplicate of Row 60 ("Accidental firearm discharge"). The data is the same. US lifetime odds are 1 in 8,745. The risk in the UK is statistically negligible.

********* (Row 92): "Street car" is an archaic term for a tram. The US NSC tracks this. The UK risk (on trams/light rail) is exceptionally low, with passenger fatalities being near-zero in most years, so a lifetime odds calculation is not meaningful.

Now how about that. In the US, your own government is twice as likely to execute you than a terrorist is! Terrorism has killed 250,000 since 2000. Awful you might think and a tragedy if a family member is affected BUT that's less than 0.004% of the world population. We spend a fortune on anti-terrorist action. What would the effect be if instead we spent that on heart disease research? Terrorism has increased dramatically in recent years but it's concentrated in conflict zones. In the US/UK the risk is practically zero.